Tonight’s GOP Debate in Las Vegas

While Obama is campaigning for support of his jobs plan, Americans are analyzing their options for the 2012 election. Tonight, the Republican Presidential candidates will gather in Las Vegas, NV for a CNN debate. Many voters are wondering which of these GOP candidates can offer a real alternative to President Obama? Voters have all but lost faith in Washington D.C. and in politicians to fix the economy. The question is, which candidate can give Americans confidence in America?

The race for the GOP Presidential nomination has been a fascinating spectacle for political junkies given the large candidate field, the fluctuating primary calendar and the unique political environment. The “top-tier” of candidates has been constantly changing as Republican voters struggle to make up their minds. In many ways the 2012 GOP Presidential primary season has always been about two people: Mitt Romney versus the not-Romney candidate.

The last several weeks has cemented Mitt Romney as the GOP frontrunner. Tonight, in the eighth GOP debate, focus will be on Romney as he makes the case that he is the most electable and most likely to beat President Obama. The other focus will be placed on Herman Cain and the one time frontrunner Rick Perry. Even with major mis-steps in past debates, the Texas Governor has been able to hold on to Presidential hopes given his fundraising power.

I spoke to the San Francisco Chronicle about the GOP candidates and specifically if Rick Perry still has a chance to become a top-tier candidate again. I was asked specifically about Perry’s appeal to Latino voters, given that the debate is taking place in Nevada, which has a 26% Latino population.

SF CHRON: “Rick Perry moves to stem immigration backlash“

“Bettina Inclan, a California Republican consultant, said Perry still has a chance to differentiate himself from other Republicans as a candidate with a track record on immigration, in contrast to Cain, who joked this week about an “electrified” fence on the border, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who pledges to build a fence the entire length of the border.

‘At the end of the day, Perry is the only presidential candidate who has real experience in dealing with a diverse Latino community,’ Inclan said.”

Things are constantly changing but here some thoughts on what to expect tonight:

Mitt Romney: Expect another great debate performance by the GOP frontrunner.  Romney, who exudes confidence, will try to establish himself as the adult in the room. He will make the point that his unique experience in both the private and pubic sector makes him the only candidate to successfully deal with the economy. Romney’s biggest challenge will be to excite the base and get more conservatives on his side. He will likely poke holes in Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan, as well as continue to attack Rick Perry, seeing Perry’s Texas size fundraising skills as one of his biggest hurdles in Romney’s road to the nomination.

Herman Cain: A long time Tea Party favorite, Cain he has used his engaging personality and speaking abilities to skyrocket to the top of the national polls. (Leaving many in the political chattering class scratching their

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Ron Paul: I’m Not Going to Kowtow to the Hispanic Vote

In an interview with Univision’s Sunday morning politics show, “Al Punto,” U.S. Congressman and GOP presidential candidate, Ron Paul, discussed his views on immigration reform, Mexico and connecting with Latinos. When asked if his views might not appeal to the growing Hispanic electorate, Paul said he was not going to “kowtow” to Latino voters.

According to a report by ABC News, Paul shrugged off any worries that his message might not appeal to Latino voters who are concerned about immigration reform.

“For me to think I need to have a different message for Hispanics than I do for other people, I think that’s unnecessary. I think Hispanics have as much interest in freedom as everybody else…” said Paul. “I don’t want to punish anyone because they belongs to a group, and nobody should get special privilege either.”

Paul said that illegal immigrants shouldn’t be given any special route to citizenship. Paul told the show’s host, Jorge Ramos, he did not support mass deportation or amnesty, but suggested a program that offers illegal immigrants the possibility to earn a work permit and fold them into the American system legally.

“If everyone who comes illegally is automatically given citizenship, a vote, and can apply for welfare, that would not be good format because we would have more of it,” said Paul. Addressing the 11 million currently in the country Paul said, “you have to work out a program of assimilation, but you can’t just say borders don’t count and people should be rewarded for breaking the law.”

The Texas Congressman also discussed his interpretation of the 14th amendment of the U.S. Constitution, adding that children born to illegal immigrants are not under the jurisdiction of U.S. government and should not be granted automatic citizenship.

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Which GOP Candidate Can Win the Latino Vote?

On paper, the field of GOP presidential candidates is a unique sort, especially in the context of “Latino issues.”

Of the Republicans currently declared for president, we have four candidates hailing from states with high Latino populations (over 10%), two are border-state governors, one is married to a Mexican-American, another launched a conservative Latino news site, and one candidate’s father was born in Mexico.

While these tidbits of trivia do not paint a complete picture of the GOP candidate’s efforts to court Hispanic voters, they do highlight one reality: Latinos are an integral part of American life.  According to the U.S. Census one out of every six people living in America are of Hispanic descent.

Latino turnout in 2012 is expected to reach a historic 12.2 million voters about 8.7% of the national electorate. A projected 26% increase from 2008.

Already, the 2012 election has been marked by a renewed focus on courting the growing Hispanic vote.  The first major political ads buys of the 2012 cycle talked about the dismal economy – in Spanish.

Republican groups, like Crossroads GPS and the Republican National Committee (RNC), have earmarked millions of dollars for political advertising in major media markets with dense Latino population, pushing ads in English and Spanish. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) reacted by mimicking GOP efforts with their own multi-million dollar Spanish-language media buy targeting Hispanic voters.

For President Obama to claim victory in 2012, he needs heavy turnout from his base and a repeat level of support from the Latino voters. In 2008, Obama won 67% of the Hispanic vote while Senator John McCain only captured 31%.  Since taking office Obama’s approval has plummeted among Latinos, losing as much as 30% since 2009.

This upcoming election will be about margins. Small margins. An August 2011 Gallup Poll shows that as many as 12 states are in play. While logic would dictate many of these states will turn deep Red or Blue in the next 15 months, a core group of states, many with significant Latino populations, will likely be too close to call until the final hour. Some of these swing states include:

• Florida (29 Electoral Votes) – 15% of eligible voters are Latino
• Arizona (11 Electoral Votes) – 18% of eligible voters are Latino
• Nevada (6 Electoral Votes) – 14% of eligible voters are Latino
• New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes) – 38% of eligible voters are Latino
• Colorado (9 Electoral Votes) – 13% of eligible voters are Latino

Keys to Winning Hispanic Voters:

For the GOP to connect with Hispanic they must understand three key things:

1) Latinos are not a monolithic voting bloc and like all things in campaigns, politics is local. Hispanics in Florida are different from Latinos in Nevada.

2) Don’t change your message, but be culturally relevant and consistent. The last things Latinos want is a slick pandering politician that says one thing in English and another thing in Spanish. (P.S. most Latinos are bilingual.) Candidates must offer honest solutions to the problems plaguing Hispanics, and all Americans.

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