Posted in Politics, tagged 2012, Hispanic, Latino, LatinoVote2012, MittRomney, Obama, outreach, poll, religion, Republicans, RNC, Stats on December 13, 2011 |
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A new poll by Latino Decisions shows that about half of Latino voters are still undecided on who to vote for President and are not excited about the upcoming 2012 election. The data is bad news for President Obama who needs a super majority of Latino support, about 75%, to secure a second term in the White House.
The new poll examined a variety of topics including likely voter turnout and important policy issue facing Latinos, economy and jobs still remain at the top of that list. Latino Decisions poll also asked about the role of religion in Latino political attitudes, the impact of Marco Rubio on a presidential ticket and the efforts of both political parties in engaging Hispanic voters.
While the ever changing Republican primary has generated a lot of media attention, it has done little to excite the average Hispanic voter about the Presidential election. Only 44% of Latino voters said they are very enthusiastic about participating in next year’s U.S. presidential election, compared with 47% in October and 50% in August.
When examining Latino attitudes towards the GOP and the Republican Party it is clear that there is much work to be done. About 20% of Latino respondents said they are certain or are considering voting for a Republican candidate. Half of Latinos feel the Republican Party is doing a poor job in connecting with Hispanics. This can be turned into an opportunities for Republican candidates to connect and motivate Hispanic voters who aren’t currently engaged in the political debate. A recent Univision poll found that a majority of Latino voters still were not familiar with the Republican presidential field.
A rare topic that was examined by the Latino Decisions poll was religion and politics from the perspective of Latino voters. It found that while Latinos are somewhat more religious as compared to non-Latinos, their religious beliefs are far less relevant to their political attitudes. 53% of respondents said that religion had no impact on their vote and about 55% of Latinos don’t care about a candidate’s religion. When asked about Mormonism, less than 1/3 of Latinos know that Mormonism is a form of Christianity – a question that was clearly aimed at understanding Latino attitudes towards Republican Mitt Romney.
Read the full report and see the slide deck on the poll at Latino Decisions: “Latinos not very enthusiastic about the 2012 election“
“…The impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll began measuring the election preferences of Latino voters in February of this year. It has been measuring their enthusiasm for voting in next year’s presidential election and their potential support for President Obama and a Republican rival. In six separate polls, Latino voters’ tendency to identify with the Democrats and President Obama’s approval rating among the majority of Latinos—except for Latino Republicans—have fluctuated somewhat, but have generally remained above 60%. Nevertheless, the voting intentions and enthusiasm of Latinos, which are crucial for Barack Obama’s re-election in states such as Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and even Arizona, which is now said to be up for grabs, are not as positive for the president as could be expected. “On the Democratic side, there’s no competition or much discussion. In 2008, as we remember, there was a lot of enthusiasm around the race, particularly between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama,” said Barreto….”
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During last night’s GOP foreign policy debate on CNN Newt Gingrich made news for his comments on immigration when he advocated for a tough but “humane” approach when dealing with the 11 million undocumented immigrants illegally residing in the United States.
Hot Air’s Ed Morissey penned “Is Gingrich playing for the Latino vote? “, he asks the question many in the blogosphere are trying to answer: “Will Newt Gingrich lose ground in the polls after moving away from a hard line on enforcement among current illegal immigrants? ” Morissey examines how Gingrich’s statements will play in the Iowa primary, with overall Republican voters and its impact to attract Latinos to the Republican candidate. It’s a great piece that looks at many issues, including the Perry factor. In regards to Gingrich’s overall position on immigration Morissey writes:
“…Besides, while Gingrich’s position may have been an outlier on that stage, it may not be an outlier within the party. Poll analyst Nate Silver looks at a May 2010 poll from the New York Times among Republican voters on immigration policy and sees Gingrich’s position as mainstream in the GOP…” READ MORE
Hispanic voters will make a big difference in early primary states “of the first six state contests, three — Florida, Nevada, and Colorado — boast higher-than average concentrations of Latino voters, and at least 30 percent of the community registers or regularly votes Republican,” according to the Las Vegas Sun. Gingrich understands that the Republican Party has a major opportunity with Latino voters this election cycle. Latino support can make the difference in helping him win the GOP nomination.
By no means is immigration the most important issue for Hispanic voters, but the tone of the debate has dictated how many Latino voters perceive a candidate, especially Republican candidates. A recent Univision Poll states that only 13% of Latinos say the GOP has done a good job reaching out to them. About 42% of Latinos say Republicans don’t care too much about Hispanics and 30% believe Republicans are being openly hostile to Latinos.
Gingrich’s statements seem to be a calculated move and a product of a long (more…)
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Straight from Politico’s Playbook, two new polls show major problems for Democrats and candidate Obama. Biggest take away from the data 1) Republicans have a MAJOR opportunity with Hispanics voters. 2) Confirms that Latino voters are open to a conservative messages and want to reduce government spending. 3) Latinos want real reform to fix the broken immigration system, not just empty promises… I’ll have my analysis, and some historical content later. For now, here is the data:
POLITICO: “ FIRST LOOK — SOBERING FINDINGS FOR DEMS IN 2 PRIVATE POLLS:”
1) THIS CYCLE’S BIGGEST SURVEY OF LATINO VOTERS: Campaigns and party committees are getting confidential briefings on the findings of a bipartisan poll for Univision of 1,500 likely Latino voters, conducted by Mark Mellman of The Mellman Group (a Democratic firm) and Dave Sackett of The Tarrance Group (Republican). About one-third of the interviews were conducted in Spanish, and the poll oversampled in CA, TX, FL, NV, NM and AZ. Playbook was provided an exclusive look at the findings:
–The research finds A SUBSTANTIAL HISPANIC SWING VOTE. Dissatisfaction with the country’s direction creates an opening for Republicans with Hispanics, and PERRY’S STANDING IN TEXAS REVEALS HOW WELL THE GOP CAN DO WITH LATINOS. 57% of those polled consider themselves Democrats, 19% Republican and 15% independent. But 43% call themselves conservative, 37% liberal and 20% moderate. Even 32% of Democrats call themselves conservatives!
–Get this: For SWING Latino voters, the top concern was “the federal gov’t in DC is wasting too much of our tax money,” just ahead of education, Medicare, deficit, “family values are in decline” and jobs. Their top issues mirror the top issues of other swing voters: “illegal immigration is out of control” was cited by 14%, compared with 17% for “politicians aren’t serious about real immigration reform” (participants could give multiple answers).
–The point to the campaigns is that Spanish-language ads can be run on the candidates’ primary message – it doesn’t have to be a separate Hispanic track. 30% of Latino swing voters watch mostly Spanish-language TV, and even English speakers consider candidates’ Spanish ads as “a sign that they respect the community.”
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Posted in Hispanic/Latino, Politics, tagged Dems, economy, Hispanic, jobs, Latino, Mitt Romney, Obama, poll, Republicans, RickPerry, Stats on September 2, 2011 |
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Things are not getting better for President Barack Obama. New polls show continued loss in support and today’s job’s numbers show no new jobs were created in August. Unemployment remains unchanged at 9.1 %. The last time there were zero net jobs created was February 1945.
With the 2012 Presidential campaign season well on its way, and growing support for GOP candidates, the President re-election is on thin ice. A few headlines Democrats should be worried about:
USA TODAY: Obama’s hits another low in another poll
“Voters disapprove of Obama’s performance by 52-42%, compared with 47%-46% in July, Quinnipiac reports. Among whites and men, Obama’s approval rating is in the 30s.
GALLUP: Obama Weekly Average Approval Holds at Term-Low 40%
“President Obama’s approval rating has leveled off at the low point of his presidency, averaging 40% for the third straight week. Notably, his approval rating among several groups that previously gave him strong majority support — postgraduates, Hispanics, 18- to 29-year-olds, and lower-income Americans — is now below the 50% threshold.”
HOT AIR: Poll: Perry 44, Obama 41
“For the first time this year, Texas Governor Rick Perry leads President Obama in a national Election 2012 survey…Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney currently trails the president by four percentage points, 43% to 39%. That’s a slight improvement for the Republican compared to a week ago…. A Generic Republican currently leads the president 48% to 40%.”
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