TUNE IN: Join the Conversation on “The Latino Nation”

Tune in and watch Tavis Smiley’s Latino Nation.

I was honored to be asked to be part of the discussion and add my voice to the two part panel. Learn more from going directly to TheLatinoNation.Com. The event is being broadcasted on PBS.

Here is more information on the event:

America’s 50-million-strong Latino community flexed its historic political muscle in the 2012 elections, evidencing the community’s growing influence. Now, as the immigration debate unfolds in Washington, Tavis moderates a national conversation on the challenges and opportunities facing this diverse group.

Hosted in partnership with the William C. Velásquez Institute, “Latino Nation: Beyond The Numbers” panelists examine a full range of Latino social, political, economic and cultural influence on American life, from the economy to politics, healthcare to education, immigration to foreign policy, as well as solutions for economic growth in this vital community.

Guests include:

Antonio González, president of the William C. Velásquez Institute; Rep. Luis Gutiérrez, D-IL; Thomas A. Saenz, president and general counsel of MALDEF;Stephanie Sanchez, student trustee board member of Chicago State University;Bettina Inclán, Republican political strategist; and others. [Click here to see list of guests.]

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Which GOP Candidate Can Win the Latino Vote?

On paper, the field of GOP presidential candidates is a unique sort, especially in the context of “Latino issues.”

Of the Republicans currently declared for president, we have four candidates hailing from states with high Latino populations (over 10%), two are border-state governors, one is married to a Mexican-American, another launched a conservative Latino news site, and one candidate’s father was born in Mexico.

While these tidbits of trivia do not paint a complete picture of the GOP candidate’s efforts to court Hispanic voters, they do highlight one reality: Latinos are an integral part of American life.  According to the U.S. Census one out of every six people living in America are of Hispanic descent.

Latino turnout in 2012 is expected to reach a historic 12.2 million voters about 8.7% of the national electorate. A projected 26% increase from 2008.

Already, the 2012 election has been marked by a renewed focus on courting the growing Hispanic vote.  The first major political ads buys of the 2012 cycle talked about the dismal economy – in Spanish.

Republican groups, like Crossroads GPS and the Republican National Committee (RNC), have earmarked millions of dollars for political advertising in major media markets with dense Latino population, pushing ads in English and Spanish. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) reacted by mimicking GOP efforts with their own multi-million dollar Spanish-language media buy targeting Hispanic voters.

For President Obama to claim victory in 2012, he needs heavy turnout from his base and a repeat level of support from the Latino voters. In 2008, Obama won 67% of the Hispanic vote while Senator John McCain only captured 31%.  Since taking office Obama’s approval has plummeted among Latinos, losing as much as 30% since 2009.

This upcoming election will be about margins. Small margins. An August 2011 Gallup Poll shows that as many as 12 states are in play. While logic would dictate many of these states will turn deep Red or Blue in the next 15 months, a core group of states, many with significant Latino populations, will likely be too close to call until the final hour. Some of these swing states include:

• Florida (29 Electoral Votes) – 15% of eligible voters are Latino
• Arizona (11 Electoral Votes) – 18% of eligible voters are Latino
• Nevada (6 Electoral Votes) – 14% of eligible voters are Latino
• New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes) – 38% of eligible voters are Latino
• Colorado (9 Electoral Votes) – 13% of eligible voters are Latino

Keys to Winning Hispanic Voters:

For the GOP to connect with Hispanic they must understand three key things:

1) Latinos are not a monolithic voting bloc and like all things in campaigns, politics is local. Hispanics in Florida are different from Latinos in Nevada.

2) Don’t change your message, but be culturally relevant and consistent. The last things Latinos want is a slick pandering politician that says one thing in English and another thing in Spanish. (P.S. most Latinos are bilingual.) Candidates must offer honest solutions to the problems plaguing Hispanics, and all Americans.

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So Long New York City

Starting a new chapter in my life, which means I am temporally leaving New York City. I had drinks with friends at a beautiful roof top bar in the Upper West Side as we toasted to life in NYC.

Lincoln Center

On a side note, talking about New York, what is up with Rep. Anthony Wiener?

The New York Congressman says his twitter got “hacked” and sent out a picture of his hooha to a 21- year old co-ed. Here is a full report form Bryan Preston at PJ Media.

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Latino Vote 2012: Hispanic Voters on the Fence on Obama

Daily Caller’s Neil Munro takes a look at President Obama’s challenge in recapturing the Latino vote in 2012 in “Hispanic Voters On the Fence”.

Barack Obama won the Hispanic vote in 2008 by a 67-31 margin, mostly by focusing resources on the Latino community, promising Hispanics a better economic future under his new administration and pledging action on immigration reform. Yet, two years later he has yet to fulfill his promises to Latinos. Support for President Obama among Hispanics has plummeted in the last several months, as low as 47% this year.

Read more at the Daily Caller:

“I don’t know how Obama wins without winning a massive majority of the [Hispanic] vote again,” said Bettina Inclan, a New York-based GOP consultant who works with Hispanic voters in California and Florida.

Recent polls show Obama’s declining support in the Hispanic community, down to the mid-50s, she said. That “pretty bad for Obama, so the White House has noticed and we’ve seen a ramp-up in the effort by the White House to show [Hispanic voters] ‘I have not forgotten you,’” she said.

Hispanics are primarily worried about the economy and jobs, but Obama may try to boost registration, turnout and his percentage of the votes by advertising his support for some form of amnesty, despite having failed to pass an immigration laws since he gained power, she said. It would be hard sell, because his pitch would be “‘trust me, this time, I’ll come through,’” she said.

…

“Republicans can counter this outreach to Hispanics by simultaneously offering a good economic message and by showing respect towards Hispanics, Inclan said. “I don’t believe in amnesty, and there’s probably a very large number of Hispanics that agree with me,” she said. But, “more than anything else, people don’t like [disrespectful] rhetoric about immigration, and that’s what gets them upset,” she said…

GOP candidates around the country have successfully managed the immigration issue, Inclan said. In 2010, GOP Hispanics won the Florida Senate seat and governor’s jobs in new Mexico and Nevada, Inclan said. “They had positions on immigration, but they talked about jobs and economy,” she said. Also, Mitt Romney , Newt Gingrich and other GOP presidential aspirants have a good record in reaching out to Hispanic voters, she said. Hispanic voters “want to feel that you care about them, that you care about what they say… and that their children lives will be okay,” she said.

….

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/05/07/hispanic-voters-on-the-fence/#ixzz1LgelqPZB

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Idiota Harry Reid Strikes Again! – Harry Reid: “Marco Rubio has to understand who he is…”

Yet again Harry Reid made an idiotic statement about Latinos… he continues to think that ALL Hispanics are alike.

In a recent interview Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) was discussing fellow Senator Marco Rubio, a Hispanic Republican from Florida. Sen. Reid said Sen. Rubio didn’t “understand” who he was… eluding that Sen. Rubio was out of touch with his “Hispanic-ness” because he is Hispanic and Republican.

Hot Air has a great write-up by John Sexton:

Harry Reid: “Marco Rubio has to understand who he is…”

About two weeks ago, Harry Reid was interviewed for a Hispanic-oriented political show called Mariowire. The interviewer asks Reid for his opinion of Marco Rubio whom, he notes, talks like a member of the GOP despite the fact that he is “Latino.” Listen to Reid’s response:

…

Harry Reid seems to have trouble wrapping his head around the concept that someone can be authentically Hispanic and Republican. As you can see in the clip above, Sen. Rubio believes his views are perfectly consistent with his genuine experience growing up in America.

Sen. Reid ridiculous statements are insulting to all Latinos. Sen. Reid apparently thinks that all 50 million Latinos in the U.S. are the same and must think the same.

Hispanic are considered swing voters because of their diversity in population and ideology. Recent surveys indicated that about 1/3 of Hispanics consider themselves “conservative,” 1/3 identify as “moderate,” and the rest self-identified as “liberal.” Clearly there is room in the Latino community for difference of thought and a variety of representatives.

This is not the first time Sen. Harry Reid has insulted the intelligence of Latinos. Here he is back in October 2010 when the Majority Leader said “I don’t know how anyone of Hispanic heritage could be a Republican.”

and here is then candidate Marco Rubio correcting him back in 2010:

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The Growing Latino Electorate, A Political Opportunity

The Washington Post’s The Fix takes a look at a new Pew Hispanic Center survey and growth and power of Latino voters. The number of Hispanic eligible voters has increased in the last decade from 13.2 million in 2000 to 21.3 million in 2010, and will continue to be an important swing voting block.

The report, and the WP article, highlight that while the Hispanic electorate has grown, they have yet to exercise their full political muscle. This is an opportunity for both political parties, but especially for Republicans. Democrats have worked hard to capture the Hispanic electorate. Yet, while the Democrats try it all to woo Latinos, the group refuses to fully commit to Democrats, or any political party. History, and the 2010 election, has shown that Republicans have an opportunity to gain support with Hispanic voters — when the party intelligently engages and communicates their message.

The question remains, will Republicans again squander the opportunity in 2012 by listening to people who don’t understand the Hispanic community? or will they implement a real Latino outreach and messaging strategy?

Read the piece:

The Fix: Latino turnout squanders chance at being key voting bloc

By Aaron Blake and Rachel Weiner

Latinos are growing faster than any other major population group in the United States, but they still aren’t a major factor in U.S. elections. At least, yet.

A new Pew Hispanic Center survey shows that in 2010, even though 16.3 percent of the country’s population was Latino, just 7 percent of voters were.This is largely, of course, because of the large amounts of Latinos who are under 18 (35 percent, according to the survey) and who aren’t citizens (22 percent). But even among those who are eligible to vote, Latinos lag far behind.

…

A full 44 percent of Latinos voted Republican in the 2004 election. That figure dropped to about 30 percent in both 2006 and 2008 — two big Democratic years — before rising back to 38 percent in 2010…

The Latino population is very young, even among eligible voters. Nearly one-third of Latino eligible voters are under 30 — typically the age group that votes the least.And another 600,000 Latinos turn 18 every year, adding rapidly to the 21.3 million eligible Latino voters…”

Some numbers from the Pew Hispanic Center, (after the jump) 

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Latino Vote 2012: Barbour Bows Out

It’s Spring 2011 but all eyes are focused on the Fall of 2012.

Today, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour officially announced he will not run for president in 2012. According to Politico, Barbour release a statement saying: “This has been a difficult, personal decision, and I am very grateful to my family for their total support of my going forward, had that been what I decided.”

Barbour’s exit from the field is huge for other Republican hopefuls wishing to snag his mega endorsement, access to his connections and fundraising powerhouse.

The current Republican field is still crowded, with no real front-runner.

• Herman Cain
• Mitch Daniels
• Newt Gingrich
• Mike Huckabee
• Jon Huntsman
• Ron Paul
• Tim Pawlenty
• Mitt Romney
• Rick Santorum
• Donald Trump

As the 2012 campaign moves forward, we will be examining the candidates efforts in truly having a modern campaign and connecting with the large Latino community. It will be interesting to see how they integrate Hispanics in to their campaign structure and in their messaging…

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Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart Is Not a “Birther”, calls it a “distraction”

In recent weeks, Donald Trump has rekindled the birther issue, questioning the natural-born American citizenship of President Barack Obama, as he tries to gain attention for his presidential bid.  The mainstream media has been quick to question Republicans and their position on the birther issue.

In an editorial interview with the Sun Sentinel (video) Miami Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart called the birther issue a distraction from substantive critiques of the president. He said:

“I have no reason to believe that he was not born here…It’s just not an issue. What is an issue is that he’s been a dismal president. That’s the issue. I actually think that that kind of detracts from the real issues, but you know thank God we live in a free country.”

Many Republicans and Conservatives agree with Rep. Diaz-Balart, the birther issue is a distraction from the real issues. There are a million reasons why President Obama is a lousy President, none of which have to do with his place of birth…. Let’s take for instance Obamacare, the national debt, the economy, lack of jobs, gas prices, government spending, education, high taxes, immigration, to name a few….

Donald Trump’s birther talk is his opportunity to promote himself and dominate a Republican political field that has no front runner for likely Presidential nominee. Trump has garnered millions of dollars in free media, reporters are talking about him as a real presidential contender, and some Republican voters are taking notice, unexcited by their current options.

If Trump does move forward, and the media attention turns to scrutiny, it will be interesting to see how the campaign unfolds. Congressman Diaz-Balart’s analysis:

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Latino Vote 2012: Hispanic Swing Vote Puts Colorado in Play

Interesting piece from the Daily Caller on how Colorado is in play in 2012 for the GOP, thanks to the Latino vote.

Colorado, a state where Democrats have seen numerous victories in recent years, could be ready for a swing in 2012. CivicForumPAC has moved Colorado to the “toss up states” category for the 2012 presidential election, thanks in large part to the fact that Hispanics are beginning to sour on President Obama. The president’s weakening connection with independents doesn’t bode well for him in Colorado either.

According to recent Gallup survey data (published April 7), Hispanics nationwide approved of Obama’s job performance at a 54 percent clip in March, which ties the president’s lowest approval rating among the group since he entered the Oval Office in 2009. While this statistic might have escaped most casual newsreaders, it is important for the GOP in Colorado, because Hispanics comprise more than 20 percent of the Centennial State’s population…

The authors recognizes that the Colorado GOP has a lot of work ahead of them, and need to outperform previous lackluster election cycles. The opportunity for a Republican to win the Latino vote will fall on their message discipline and if they are serious about implementing a real long-term Hispanic engagement strategy. It’s not just “outreach” it is about understanding the community and delivering a culturally relevant communications and political effort.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/12/hispanic-dissatisfaction-with-democrats-puts-colorado-in-play-in-2012/#ixzz1LGYB0hk1

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The Fate of the GOP in Latino Hands

National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar wrote an interesting piece about the GOP’s need to connect with Hispanic voters in “North by Southwest.” The article states that the only way for the GOP to stay viable in future elections is by finding ways to appeal to Hispanic voters, and highlights potential candidates that could help the Republican Party better connect with Latinos.  Read the full piece here.

Kraushaar closed his column with the following statement:

“The lesson: Republicans have shown they can compete for the Hispanic vote with the right message and the right candidates. But they also have shown they could easily squander their opportunities. The question: Which path will they take in 2012?”

I agree with Kraushaar. I’ve worked with people who have embraced efforts to connect with Latino voters and others who have squandered the opportunity. The results of the 2010 elections, combined with the reality of new Census numbers, provides those of us pushing the GOP to create a long-term Hispanic outreach plan a new tool to make our case. If the Party doesn’t adjust its’ strategy, the future of the GOP maybe in question.

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