Winning the Latino Vote: Tone Vs. Substance

When talking to Latino voters, what is more important: the tone of the debate or the substance? That is the constant question asked by candidates, perplexed on how to effectively connect with the growing Hispanic electorate, scheduled to reach 12.2 million voters in 2012.  Even though the economy, jobs and education continue to be top issues for Latino voters, immigration has dominated the conversation.

Campaign & Elections Magazine has a new post by Chris Palko titled “Winning the Hispanic vote in 2012.” He states that recent numbers indicate that tone trumps substance on immigration. He also suggests some other topics candidates should focus on, including government spending, education and national security.

“…The media’s focus influences strategists from both political parties who routinely view the key to winning Hispanic voters as championing some form of immigration reform. But is immigration really the main issue of concern for Hispanics? Not by a long shot. The No.1 issue that Hispanic voters care about is education…

…Republicans do have an image problem among most Hispanic voters, but it is not a crushing deficit and there is room for improvement. Democrats, meanwhile, are more trusted overall, although they are far from beloved. In many respects, the immigration issue is a proxy for “respecting the Hispanic community.” If there are image problems for Republicans among Hispanics, it has more to do with a perceived lack of respect than the details of an immigration policy. Moreover, Republican politicians could make inroads with Hispanic voters if they indicate that they respect the community, and refrain from demonizing immigrants…” READ MORE

The reason tone is so important in efforts to connect with Hispanics is easy, a Latino will not consider a candidate if he/she feels the tone of that person is harsh or anti-Latino. A candidate can be offering all the answers in the world, be full of great substance, but if a Latino feels the candidate hates Latinos, the candidates is not going to get that vote.

As the 2012 election inches closer, Republican candidates must ensure they are connecting and engaging Hispanic voters.  Recently, the Obama campaign announced their National Latino Vote Director. On the Republican side, only Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman have announced official efforts to court Latino voters.

A recent Univision poll has Obama ahead of GOP Presidential candidates. Yet, it also showed that Republican candidates have made little effort to connect with Hispanic voters, and have low name identification.

“At the moment, Latinos are not very familiar with the slate of Republican candidates. Over half – 53 percent – have never no opinion of or have never heard of Cain, for instance…

All four of the following candidates – Romney, Perry, Cain and Gingrich – have net negative favorability ratings among Latinos. And Romney, whom political insiders view as the favorite for the GOP nomination, is unknown to many Latinos: 46 percent say they have no opinion or have never heard of him.

Only 13 percent of Latinos say the GOP has done a good job reaching out to them, while 42 percent say Republicans don’t care too much about them and 30 percent believe they are being openly hostile. By comparison, 45 percent of Latinos believe that Democrats have done a good job of reaching out them, while 32 percent say they are apathetic. Only eight percent say they are openly hostile.”

Republicans have a major opportunity this election cycle to connect with Latino voters, given the growing disenchantment with Obama among Hispanics and the general electorate. In order for the GOP to win the White House, they need Latinos, about 40% of the support of the Hispanic community to win. Efforts to engage Hispanic must start now for the Republican Party to have a real chance to win in November 2012.

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News Round-Up: Immigration & Romney, Boycotting Univision

In case you missed it….a quick round-up of top headlines focusing on Hispanics and the GOP:

• AD AGE:  To Reach Latino Voters, Forget Immigration Issue and Do Ads in Spanish (NATIONAL)
  

Great piece with lots of juicy stats on Hispanics and the Latino electorate: “…Hispanics represent about 9% or 10% of the electorate, but in key states can make up 12% to 16% of voters, and as much as 35% of the voting population. And they’re not as interested in the immigration issue as politicians appear to believe they are.

“They’re more interested in the economy, jobs, education, government waste and higher taxes,” Mr. Mellman said. “Language is also important. A large percentage of the swing voters — one-third or more — is Spanish dominant. A relatively small group only watches English-language media, and even they think it’s important to advertise on Spanish-language media. They say that’s a sign of respect for their community.”

• FOX NEWS LATINO: Presidential Race 2012: Political Attention Turns to Nevada (Nevada)

Reacting to the accelerated GOP Primary calendar, the Nevada caucuses may move up to January, getting ahead of Florida. Nevada has a growing Latino population, and estimated 14% of eligible Nevada voters are Hispanic: “Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Texas Rep. Ron Paul and Georgia businessman Herman Cain have been working Nevada for months in advance of the caucuses. They’ve hired campaign staffs, opened offices and assembled networks of volunteers. The other candidates are starting to follow, mindful of the huge fundraising and popularity bump that comes with winning one of the three states that kick off the voting.”

• Miami Herald: ‘Boycott Univision debate,’ Florida Republicans tell RNC (Florida)

Top Florida Hispanic Republicans are calling on the national GOP and their party’s presidential candidates to boycott a proposed Univision debate amid allegations that Spanish-language television network Univision tried to “extort” Sen. Marco Rubio. The GOP leaders sent this open letter to the Republican National Committee. READ MORE.

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Growing Support for a “Limited” Dream Act: Governor Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio?

There is growing support among Republican leaders for a limited version of the Dream Act, according to Florida’s Shark-Tank.net. The state-level Dream Act allows children who grew up in America, yet as minors entered the country illegally by no fault of their own, to receive in-state college tuition, in the state in which they reside and graduated from high school. The state version of the Dream Act does not deal with immigration status.

Read the full post by Shark Tank’s Javier Manjarres: “Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush In-Line With a Limited Form of the Dream Act?“

Governor Rick Perry’s support for in-state tuition for children of illegal immigrants is now getting the blessing of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who always has had a soft spot for a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in Florida. Governor Bush stated to the National Journal that he thought that Perry’s Texas tuition measure was “fair policy.”

By all accounts, the illegal immigration debate is ready to explode onto the 2012 election season, as many groups, both pro and anti-illegal immigration begin to make their cases for their respective causes. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio was ridiculed several years ago for not helping to pass (6) immigration reform bills that eventually died while he was the Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives.

According to the Journal, in 2003 and 2004, Senator Marco Rubio sponsored a similar bill offering tuition assistance to the children of illegal immigrants. During his 2010 Senatorial campaign, Rubio ran to the right on the illegal immigration issue, and fast became the pro-legal immigration candidate, winning the both the Tea Party and Conservative votes.

“Senator Rubio does not support blanket in-state tuition benefits for students who are in this country illegally. As he said throughout the 2010 campaign and continues to say today, he believes that a consensus exists to help a limited number of young people who were brought here by their parents as young children and have worked hard, exhibited good moral character, and want to contribute to our nation’s future in a meaningful way by becoming part of American society and attending college or joining our armed forces,” said [Senator] Rubio spokesman Alex Burgos.

READ MORE: http://shark-tank.net/2011/09/27/19912/

Several versions of the “Dream Act” exist, with very different rules when implemented at the state or federal level. State based “Dream Acts” are in-state tuition measures and usually only impact a student’s ability to attend college. Most versions of a federal DREAM Act deal with college admission, military service and a student’s immigration status. According to the National Journal, “…Rubio opposes the federal DREAM Act, which would allow children of illegal immigrants who go to college or serve in the military to earn legal status. Perry also opposes that legislation.“

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Which GOP Candidate Can Win the Latino Vote?

On paper, the field of GOP presidential candidates is a unique sort, especially in the context of “Latino issues.”

Of the Republicans currently declared for president, we have four candidates hailing from states with high Latino populations (over 10%), two are border-state governors, one is married to a Mexican-American, another launched a conservative Latino news site, and one candidate’s father was born in Mexico.

While these tidbits of trivia do not paint a complete picture of the GOP candidate’s efforts to court Hispanic voters, they do highlight one reality: Latinos are an integral part of American life.  According to the U.S. Census one out of every six people living in America are of Hispanic descent.

Latino turnout in 2012 is expected to reach a historic 12.2 million voters about 8.7% of the national electorate. A projected 26% increase from 2008.

Already, the 2012 election has been marked by a renewed focus on courting the growing Hispanic vote.  The first major political ads buys of the 2012 cycle talked about the dismal economy – in Spanish.

Republican groups, like Crossroads GPS and the Republican National Committee (RNC), have earmarked millions of dollars for political advertising in major media markets with dense Latino population, pushing ads in English and Spanish. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) reacted by mimicking GOP efforts with their own multi-million dollar Spanish-language media buy targeting Hispanic voters.

For President Obama to claim victory in 2012, he needs heavy turnout from his base and a repeat level of support from the Latino voters. In 2008, Obama won 67% of the Hispanic vote while Senator John McCain only captured 31%.  Since taking office Obama’s approval has plummeted among Latinos, losing as much as 30% since 2009.

This upcoming election will be about margins. Small margins. An August 2011 Gallup Poll shows that as many as 12 states are in play. While logic would dictate many of these states will turn deep Red or Blue in the next 15 months, a core group of states, many with significant Latino populations, will likely be too close to call until the final hour. Some of these swing states include:

• Florida (29 Electoral Votes) – 15% of eligible voters are Latino
• Arizona (11 Electoral Votes) – 18% of eligible voters are Latino
• Nevada (6 Electoral Votes) – 14% of eligible voters are Latino
• New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes) – 38% of eligible voters are Latino
• Colorado (9 Electoral Votes) – 13% of eligible voters are Latino

Keys to Winning Hispanic Voters:

For the GOP to connect with Hispanic they must understand three key things:

1) Latinos are not a monolithic voting bloc and like all things in campaigns, politics is local. Hispanics in Florida are different from Latinos in Nevada.

2) Don’t change your message, but be culturally relevant and consistent. The last things Latinos want is a slick pandering politician that says one thing in English and another thing in Spanish. (P.S. most Latinos are bilingual.) Candidates must offer honest solutions to the problems plaguing Hispanics, and all Americans.

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Huntsman Names National Chairpersons for Hispanic and Youth Vote

In an effort to court the crucial Latino vote, this week GOP Presidential candidate Jon Huntsman named Ana Navarro, a Miami-based Republican strategist and GOP fundraiser, as his National Hispanic Chairperson.

Navarro’s appointment was made during a Miami press conference on Wednesday, billed as a “major announcement“ to highlight the endorsement of Jeb Bush Jr., the son of the popular Florida Governor.

Jeb Bush Jr., who heads Florida based SunPAC, a Hispanic outreach group, will serve as the National Chairman of “GenH,” the campaign’s youth and young professional outreach program.

Navarro, who co-chaired John McCain’s Hispanic outreach in 2008, is a hard-hitting GOP operative, a seasoned surrogate, who is focused on getting results. While the Huntsman campaign has been slow to gain traction in the polls, Navarro can serve a pivotal role by securing support among Hispanics. Especially in Florida, Latino voters have served as a key voting block for victorious campaigns including President George W. Bush (56%), President Barack Obama (57%) and most recently for Governor Rick Scott (50%) in 2010.

In addition to announcing his new endorsements, Huntsman articulated his Cuba policy. Huntsman said he backs the sanctions and embargo against Cuba. Watch the video for more:

Discussing his support for Huntsman and the candidates’ fiscal policies, Jeb Bush Jr. stated “…between the ages of 20-30, this generation we are going to spend the rest of our life paying for your debts… We need people with substantiate policies and with great ideas to come out and put policies in place to lead my kids’ generation out of this debt.“

As the head of Huntsman’s “GenH” efforts targeting young voters Jeb Bush Jr. will have to continue discussing the failing economy and its impact on American’s youth and young professionals. Many believe the GOP can capture the youth vote in 2012.

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