A new study by Latino Decisions shows that President Barack Obama’s support among Hispanic voters has dropped significantly with only 38% of those polled saying they were certain to vote for Obama next year. The figure is down from 49% in June.
The poll was conducted in late July and early August in 21 states with the large Hispanic populations (poll numbers below). It showed Obama with a 63% approval rate. A drop from 73% in April.
While the poll shows a huge political vulnerability for Obama, who needs Latino voters to secure his re-election, it did not show growing support for a GOP alternative. The Latino Decisions poll demonstrated weak support for Republicans with a “soft 22%” of those polled. Pilar Marrero of impreMedia, who first wrote about the Latino Decisions poll, states:
“Only 10% of Latino voters said they are certain to vote for a Republican, while 8% said they may vote for a Republican for president. Another 4% said they are still undecided but leaning toward a Republican candidate.”
When asked about GOP Hispanic outreach, only 18% of Hispanics said the Republican Party has done a “good job.” In contrast, when asked about Democratic Party outreach to Hispanics, 43% said they had done a “good job.”
About half of the Latino population is “very enthusiastic” about voting. A number which will likely increase as the Presidential contest heats up. Earlier this year NALEO projected 26% increase in Latino voters from 2008, reaching over 12.2 million.
Obama received 68% of the Latino vote in his 2008 race against Republican John McCain. Obama’s Latino outreach efforts helped him secure key swing states with large Latino constituencies such as Florida,Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
The poll showed that the economy continued to be the number one issue for Latino voters. USA Today reported “They, like many Americans, were put off by the battle over the nation’s debt ceiling and deficit reduction that concluded in early August.”
Breakdown of poll numbers after the jump.
August 2011 (63% approve)
strongly approve 28%; somewhat approve 35%; somewhat disapprove 11%; strongly disapprove 20%
June 2011 (68% approve)
strongly approve 41%; somewhat approve 27%; somewhat disapprove 9%; strongly disapprove 15%
April 2011 (73% approve)
strongly approve 38%; somewhat approve 35%; somewhat disapprove 8%; strongly disapprove 13%
August 2011: 38% certain Obama; 24% lean to Obama
June 2011: 49% certain Obama; 17% lean to Obama
April 2011: 41% certain Obama; 24% lean to Obama
Democratic Party outreach to Hispanics:
August 2011: 43% good job; 37% don’t care; 11% being hostile
June 2011: 48% good job; 31% don’t care; 7% being hostile
April 2011:47% good job; 27% don’t care; 11% being hostile
Republican Party outreach to Hispanics:
August 2011: 18% good job; 45% don’t care; 27% being hostile
June 2011: 12% good job; 49% don’t care; 23% being hostile
April 2011: 21% good job; 42% don’t care; 20% being hostile
2012 enthusiasm to vote:
August 2011: 50% very enthusiastic; 26% somewhat
June 2011: 48% very enthusiastic; 28% somewhat
NOTE: The poll was in the field before the announcement on new DHS detention policies. The next impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll will be released in early October 2011.
METHODOLOGY: LD polled 500 Latino registered voters between July 27 and August 9 in the 21 states with the largest Hispanic populations, representing 95% of the electorate. Those interviewed were selected at random from voters lists. The poll includes interviews conducted via cell phone and land line telephones by fully bilingual interviewers. The margin of error is +/-4.3%. The interviews were conducted in English or Spanish at the request of the respondent.